Re: Day Five (August 16th-17th): Shit Tyrone, Get It Together
Ok, if only like six living people are active, and I'm one of them, I guess I'd better really get into the game. So let's see...
Belle I find suspicious. She seems to be very sure of herself, such as here:
Belle on Day Three said:
Oh deary diddles.
Suspicion? Cast on me?
This will not do.
She then proceeds to post a very long defense of herself, which I won't quote all of here because it'd take up a lot of my post, but she seemed satisfied to re-use what she'd already said against Dia and she seemed very confident that no-one would suspect her. Which is suspicious, but she
was attacking Dia who turned out to be Mafia so one must take that into account.
She also twice mentioned that we should lynch the "quiet ones", which she listed on Day Four as Cody,
DarkSpyro, Rolly, and Ked. If she was, hypothetically, Mafia, it could be that she was looking to clear up some townspeople here. It is more likely, after all, that any given person is a townsperson rather than Mafioso, statisically speaking (we
know there are more townspeople than Mafia). Now Rolly was Mafia, but it is also likely that, assuming again hypothetically that she is Mafia, that she and Rolly are in different families - after all she would be less likely to list a comrade as one to be suspicious of.
She has also mentioned that Ked is suspicous at least twice:
Belle on Day Four said:
For now though, the one that stands out to me the most... I guess would be Ked.
Belle later that day said:
I'm still not sold on Rolly, admittedly. And I'm hesitant to jump on this bandwagon because, to be frank, I'm still suspicious of Ked and Louie.
She points out Louie, reasonable as he was inactive, but he's now dead. She points out Ked, as Shiny said, which seems to be a sticking point. Why has she accused him three seperate times (as one of the inactive players, and in the two above quotes)? And she seems to defend Rolly. Whom she attacked before as being too quiet, whom we lynched as Mafia. She was the only one to vote against him, everyone else either voted for Rolly or Mr.RMA, which brings me to my next suspect.
Mr.RMA's posts on Day One were, I thought, rather good in that he contributed to discussions - or tried to in any case. He made to lynch Savichez, who was innocent, but then so did I, so did others.
On Day Two he voted to lynch DarkSoul, and also voiced suspicions against Blazi. This is reasonable - both were Mafia. However this didn't contribute anything, so he was just going along with everyone else.
On Day Three he posted rather early on, earlier than before, to lynch Dia. Much like Day Two, he followed the - albeit smaller - crowd. She was Mafia too however.
On Day Four he posted earlier
again - and this is where he seems to have messed up. It wasn't that early into the thread, but his was the second post against Rolly, after Shiny. Myth Busted picked up on this, and immediately attempted to lynch him. Now someone's gotta start a bandwagon, and if no-one jumped on it'd fail. Mr.RMA jumped on first, reasonable, but then he was accused for that. Which we can understand if we look at his previous posts, which were just to tack on to the end of what everyone else said. However, I don't see jumping on a bandwagon as a suspicious thing in and of itself, and Mr.RMA wasn't able to post a lot due to his internet being down, which he mentioned in other places too. Myth Busted jumped on him though, saying that:
Myth Busted on Day Four said:
You're going to try and form an almost non-existent bandwagon or join the tiny one there already is. That doesn't seem right. Why would you want to lynch Rolly so fast?
All bandwagons start small, and someone has to get on them first, you know? Why did Myth find this suspicious? Well DarkSpyro said:
DarkSpyro on Day Four said:
Quote from: Mr.RMA on 04 August 2011, 03:39:47
Well, I guess that's the best method we can go by for the time being.
In that case, I'll vote to lynch Rolly as well.
With which statements? there is nothing that can make Rolly guilty, I mean, just for trowing in an idea to work with the quiet ones doesn't mean that he is mafia? or which mafia would give out themselves instead of pointing out to someone else. In my opinion, Rolly is at this point innocent, unless something reveals the opposite. For the moment I'll stay with Myth and lynch you Mr. MRA
Now Rolly was indeed innocent at this point in the thread, he had not been proven guilty. Later events
proved that he was, indeed, Mafia. DarkSpyro also defended Rolly, saying he was at that point innocent, as I mentioned, however he
was Mafia.
Overall it seems to be that everyone thought that Mr.RMA jumping on the bandwagon before everyone else was suspicious, even Shiny who started the whole thing, however they were more occupied with Rolly at that point. But when a bandwagon is formed, people get on it, it seems that just because he provided no reasoning he is a target. In days two and three the second person to jump on the bandwagon did provide reasoning for their choice, so one has to wonder why Mr.RMA didn't, but I can't get over the fact that I don't consider it as too suspicious and several are wanting to lynch him anyway. Seems like an overreaction, by Myth Busted anyway, which brings me nicely to him.
Shiny has called Myth a "liability". The way I see it, he abstains until something pops up then accuses very quickly, and he is vehement in his posts. As in, he seems very sure of all of his reasoning, and is eager to get someone to accuse when he's not already:
Myth on Day Two said:
Very interesting stuff, Sir Red, but is it just possible that you too are throwing out accusations to throw others off YOUR trail?
Either way, what you're saying about Dark is interesting, but I too also find Blazi's post to be a little suspicious. However these suspicions can't yet be confirmed, I have to think further.
I still haven't yet decided what I'm going to do, expect my decision in time.
Myth on Day Four said:
Oh no, you don't.
There wasn't even a bandwagon on this first time. If you're Mafia, you'll be laughing so hard if Rolly gets lynched and is innocent. You're going to try and form an almost non-existent bandwagon or join the tiny one there already is. That doesn't seem right. Why would you want to lynch Rolly so fast? Even after Shiny says that she's just kidding? I think you are most definitely hiding in the shadows in this game and you've finally done it for me.
If you're innocent, I'm sorry, but for now, I'm going to lynch Mr. RMA.
There's two good examples. LoN seemed also to have been suspicious, but he didn't say why at the time:
LoN on Day Four said:
Quote from: Myth Busted on 04 August 2011, 16:21:27
If you're innocent, I'm sorry, but for now, I'm going to lynch Mr. RMA.
You don't want to do that, sir.
LoN's now dead, so I couldn't ask him about that. In my opinion, Myth is overly eager to attack, even on faulty reasoning. I don't like it.
I don't know about DarkSpyro. Shiny says his account got deleted (how?) but that he's made a new one by now. He has been posting, however. I don't know - is he still in the game? What's up there?
Assuming he is still in the game, he has so far posted very short posts either abstaining early or "bandwagoning", so to speak.
A characteristic post:
DarkSpyro on Day Three said:
I also found Dia very suspicious but you guys have said all of what I had in mind so I'll be joining the bandwagon and Lynch Dia
On Day Four he made a long(-ish) post which accused Mr.RMA and somewhat defended Rolly, as I pointed out, and he hasn't yet posted on Day Five. So I don't know about 'im. If I had to say then I don't think much of his responses so far.
Cody is next, he's a bit harder to analyse. In my opinion his posts were well thought out, and didn't raise my suspicions. Shiny and LoN were suspicious of him on Day Four, he defended himself, I thought it was reasonable. Shiny seemed to think so too.
However today Shiny said that, since LoN died, we know it wasn't Chadwick who killed him, so it must have been a member of the other family, and since the only one whom he was accusatory towards was Cody, one can suspect him as the culprit. However Cody then said:
Cody said:
Finally, Shiny, I'd like to defend myself. LoN did want to lynch me, true; however, the Mafioso who didn't kill Tun could be using the death of LoN to frame me -- which would allow that mafia member to be responsible for two innocent deaths in one round.
which is also a valid point, and a good defense. I don't and didn't see anything overly suspicious about his posts previous. Of course, if one is not suspected then one should be, we can't let anyone off since
anyone could be Mafia at this point.
Which brings me to Shiny. Our self-styled Mafia Obsessive.
No-one upon no-one (except Chad, on Day One, and he said he didn't really suspect her) has accused her of anything, she has meanwhile been a very active player. Actually, she's been quite helpful in voicing her suspicions, you can see me reference her several times in this post. I'd like to make clear, I don't find her suspicious right now, but no-one does, and I feel we should at least cast a suspecting eye over her posts.
Then there's Ked, who has not made particularly long posts as of yet, except today, and she didn't post yesterday. Belle came out and accused her a few times, but I am not too sure why she'd be suspicious of Ked.
Personally I'm not, really, but I don't have much to go on.
Last is SetoshiArenhariKai, whose moment of note came when he tried to lynch Sem, apparantly not noticing that, as Belle put it:
Belle on Day Two said:
....
Sem is dead.
He died this morning
when he was murdered
and then edited his post, to lynch DarkSoul, saying he'd join the bandwagon this once. Sho picked up on this though, rather... strongly:
Shocari on Day Two said:
Setoshi. DIE. You little whore. The fact that you edited your post to hide this is incredibly suspicious. I'm going to vote against you next round with pleasure.
It could be a simple mistake on Setoshi's part, or it could be something more sinister. However, Shocari didn't end up voting for Setoshi the next day, instead attacking Dia for accusing him, and died on Day Four. In any case, Setoshi hasn't yet posted since, and it looks like he'll die due to inactivity.
Also Shiny, in response to your queries, I was rather busy around Days Two and Three, being on holiday and having to manage the house alone and whatnot. It isn't that I'm hiding, rather it is easier to take on all of your points, seeing as you keep making the ones I might make!
But today, with so little activity, I felt it was a good time to make myself really heard! =D I shall be a bigger part in discussions from now on, I hope.
Finally, in summary, Mr.RMA and Belle are the most likely candidates to be lynched today, and Shiny's going for Mr.RMA, but I don't feel he's suspicious
enough, especially alongside Belle, so I think, that my desicion is to
lynch Belle. Sorry I can't join you there Shiny.
(god it took ages to write all that D=)
I mean, there's like, eight of us, and two mafia. Why do I say two? Well, it could be three or four or even six, but judging from what Data said in his post for the previous day, "Although both families still exist, their numbers are dwindling, and it looks bleak for the Mafia," and if I'm right about the original ratio of mafia to townspeople being similar as it was last game, there should only be one person left on each mafia team.
)
