Mafia VIII - Day Two [22nd-24th June]: Believe

[Teapot]

It is Day Two. Last night, Luckii was taken as the first casualty of the game. He was a townsperson.

 

[Yoshimitsu]

Re: Day Two [22nd-24th June]: Believe

Incinerate the hag.

 

[Demelza]

Re: Day Two [22nd-24th June]: Believe

I'm sad we lost another townsperson, but at the same time I kind of expect it by day two when we never vote to lynch anyone the day before.

Luckii wasn't very vocal in the last day, heck Luckii only posted once, which could have worked in the mafia's favour considering sometimes we vote to lynch the quieter players, so the choice is surprising, but then it's also a choice which leaves us little to go by. We'll have to see how people reply.

 

[Sir Red]

Re: Day Two [22nd-24th June]: Believe

A solid play by the Mafia. Giving us really nothing to go off of and essentially picking at random. The way I have always viewed it is that it's better to kill somebody who has no real connections to anybody than to try and "frame" somebody, as that is very obviously a bad play by this point in the game for Mafia.

I suppose the one real downside to Abstaining in Day 1 is that we have far less to go off of on Day 2 than we would had be lynched somebody. Each decision has its downside, and we simply have to deal with this one.

 

[Shocari]

Re: Day Two [22nd-24th June]: Believe

Agreed. It is going to be a bit of a challenge to determine who the Mafia are, based on this move. Luckii being quiet and no one even mentioning him in the previous day leaves us with zero connections to go on.

If worse comes to worse, we may just have to lynch someone at randpm and hope for the best, because abstaining will most certainly hurt us. At least with this, we will have /some/ chance of hitting Mafia. 'Tis better to take a calculated risk than an absolute detriment.

 

[Teapot]

Re: Day Two [22nd-24th June]: Believe

I think El wins the award for best post of the game already. Just sayin'.

Also, the thread title is the Cher song. Just so you know I'm sticking to my pattern.

 

[Coreysawrus]

Re: Day Two [22nd-24th June]: Believe

Hmm, interesting first kill and like previously said it doesn't really give us any leads and we're pretty much at square one again and unless someone slips up we are gonna have to take a shot in the dark as abstaining would be inadvisable with 2 townies down. However at least we know there is only one Mafia and not two smaller ones.

 

[Yoshimitsu]

Re: Day Two [22nd-24th June]: Believe

I think El wins the award for best post of the game already. Just sayin'.

Also, the thread title is the Cher song. Just so you know I'm sticking to my pattern.

I can't help it, I'm just so fabulous

by which I obviously mean

Torch the enchantress

 

[Brendan Savem]

However at least we know there is only one Mafia and not two smaller ones.

Is that true though? You're probably right, but there's always the odd chance that there are two families and that they both targeted Luckii. It's possible, but very unlikely, given the target being a very obscure and quiet person. Regardless, while we don't have any leads, the motive is obvious, which is to avoid leaving a trail. To be honest, the move seems a little, vanilla to say the least. It just strikes me as a move done by people that are unwilling to cut some of the thicker strings in this web of deception. So we could be dealing with less experienced players, or just players that haven't been Mafia before.

 

[Coreysawrus]

If I remember correctly in previous games we've been told about multiple assailants. I agree it is a bit of a vanilla move but the early removal of experienced players like Red, Katie and yourself is also a rookie move. But I also agree some strings could be cut as there was potential for me and Red to be put into the web and with how close other players there was possibility for set ups

 

[Sir Red]

Regardless, while we don't have any leads, the motive is obvious, which is to avoid leaving a trail. To be honest, the move seems a little, vanilla to say the least. It just strikes me as a move done by people that are unwilling to cut some of the thicker strings in this web of deception. So we could be dealing with less experienced players, or just players that haven't been Mafia before.

I don't agree with this, Brendan. Killing Luckii is a smart move. It gives us nothing to go off of. If they had killed me, who would everyone look to? Riley? But if anyone thought things through, they'd realize that Riley was trying to be framed, because only and idiot would kill the person they were hounding the Day before (Obviously we could turn this into a Princess Bride-esque logic sequence, but let's not).

Also, as several of the "good" players have mentioned before when discussing being Mafia, we like to have the other "good" players around to direct people and guess incorrectly. Unless the start sniffing around the actual Mafia and are really moving towards a lynching, they are of no threat. In fact, they are almost helpful. There is no point in killing a person who can move the town to lynch an innocent if they do something stupid, when they clearly have no idea who the Mafia truly is.

So my apologies, Brendan, but I do not agree with your posting. This play was smart, as far as I'm concerned. Last game we saw people targeting me out right away, but this time not so much. Gameplay evolves and people realize that the obvious is not always the immediate threat. Deception is the name of the game, and killing the key players is not always wise. I mean, Sho and Katie kept each other alive last game for a reason.

 

[Coreysawrus]

One point is if the vocal or good players are eliminated it easy to see who is directing the game and which of those experience and vocal players are left so its easy to see Mafia.

 

[Atma]

All I got to say is that maybe both mafia families came to an agreement over Luckii somehow. I agree on the time to vote and vocal front, however. A voiced member is a dangerous one where-as deducting members imo are all to be observed and analytically picked apart.

With past experience I can reasonably say in myself that Red will pick up anyone's argument and scrutinise it so to me it makes small difference if we try and fit him into criteria of either label. Red will still be as is, so I figure we might as well agree with the consensus and keep a person providing a valuable input. As for who to lynch? I'm not quite sure yet. El crosses my mind but y'know, that's just based on some italic offensive text xD Nothing solid.

And hey, I'm still just hoping to make it to day three.

 

[Dark Soul]

Whether there are one Mafia or two definitely makes a huge difference. Either of the two theories- One Mafia, or two Mafias who chose the same poor subject- could be true. If anything, we'll see next morning, unless by some sheer fluke both hypothetical parties choose the same victim again.

In the meantime, I've not been able to list any suspects for myself. No one has let out anything suspicious yet, experienced and inexperienced players alike- Not counting El, whose continiously expressed desire to set a certain woman with magical capabilities alight can likely be attributed to him being himself. Of course, a couple people have been silent so far today, so I'd love to hear from them before I can form an opinion.

 

[Coreysawrus]

I'm agreeing with you on that DS no one jumps out as a suspect everyone is playing good hopefully today's lynch and mafia kill shed some light otherwise we have dangerous blind lynchings and hopefully we get good play by the detective if there is one. I'd like to hear something solid from El, Katie and RMA

 

[Linkachu]

Whether there are one Mafia or two definitely makes a huge difference. Either of the two theories- One Mafia, or two Mafias who chose the same poor subject- could be true. If anything, we'll see next morning, unless by some sheer fluke both hypothetical parties choose the same victim again.

Judging by the fact that two townspeople have already died and the total number of players isn't that high, I suspect that we truly do only have one Mafia family this game. How many members are within that family is likely the real question. Past games have ranged from 2-4 (I believe).

While not wanting to make myself a target, I must agree that Luckii's death does not seem like a fluke to me either. Luckii, who was very passive on the previous days and literally called nobody out, made for a great target because even though he's been taken out we're literally still at step one now. What does that leave us to do? Suspect the players who've made the most suspicious comments thus far, namely the most vocal players, who also happen to be the ones who threaten the Mafia most. If we end up taking each other out ourselves the job of the Mafia is that much easier. But that being said...

I know my own alignment obviously but I can only assume everyone else's. Between Red, Sho, Brendan, and Corey, I'm willing to bet that at least one of them is Mafia based on the overall player numbers and their own playing styles. Why am I targeting them specifically? Because regardless of who amoung them is actually innocent and who isn't, they're the players that I see directing this game the most for better or worse.

Where does that leave me for today? Well... I think it's too early to call out any of my top suspects, but a player like El has caught my attention (ILU El rly). El's posts are the type that can just as easily mask Mafianess as they can his own innocence, and that always makes me wary.

 

[Coreysawrus]

Where does that leave me for today? Well... I think it's too early to call out any of my top suspects, but a player like El has caught my attention (ILU El rly). El's posts are they type that can just as easily mask Mafianess as they can his own innocence, and that always makes me wary.

This is exactly why I want something solid from El because his posts seem a bit silly like Blazi's posts were in previous games but it could entirely be a rouse to mask Mafianess like you said. I don't wanna go for El just based on these silly posts about burning some magical woman because look where it's got us with Blazi the only aid it's done is it's shifted attention to more serious matters while losing a townie. With how small this game is, not knowing how big this Mafia (I'm thinking 4 like you Katie) and the loss of two townies already we can't afford another double down on the townie front.

This play of not leaving a trail is scary because I honestly don't know what to do I don't know whether to gamble and possibly lose 2 (3 given the two mafia theory) townies or abstain and lose less townies but also lose a chance to hit Mafia. If we are going to risk it we need something concise and not just a blind stab because we need to hit Mafia if we are going to win and we also need to hope for a Mafia kill with leads otherwise it's going to make it incredibly difficult to win

 

[Dark Soul]

Katie, your theory on the Mafia is probably right. That being said, I'm not sure if I agree with the idea that the more vocal and/or experienced players would be more likely to be Mafia. They would make for good Mafia players, which is dangerous in its own right, but without any evidence they aren't more suspicious than others. At least, that's the way I see it.

 

[Shocari]

I agree with Katie. As good as the veteran players are, we're not infallible, so any tiny mistake we make gets magnified a hundredfold because of the pedestal we have been placed on. If we're not careful, the smallest error of judgment could easily mean the difference between a victory and a defeat. More importantly so because here we are on Day Two with absolutely nothing to go on.

I still firmly believe that abstaining this round, while it would minimize our losses, would keep us even further back because it could:
-Potentially keep us from lynching a Mafia member
-Keep us at zero leads

Now, I'm all for lynching Carmen here, but we should really take some time and look at this very carefully before we come to any big decisions.

 

[Sir Red]

Now, I'm all for lynching Carmen here, but we should really take some time and look at this very carefully before we come to any big decisions.

I for one support this course of action.

Though I do have to agree on the El front. El usually does not give us much to work with, as he lives a busy life and will generally post that we all post too much and he has to catch up. But this game he's been posting a decent bit and all of them a variation of the same the joke. Whilst funny, it is increasingly gaining my attention.

Also, what Karu said is true. I scrutinize everything everyone says in the attempt to, as I've stated previously, discredit their argument and them. I try to use people's own words against them, rather than building a case myself. A good upside of that is that you can also fluster people by doing it and possibly get them to slip up. So yes, I will continue to do this style of Mafia play.

 

[Shocari]

Also, what Karu said is true. I scrutinize everything everyone says in the attempt to, as I've stated previously, discredit their argument and them. I try to use people's own words against them, rather than building a case myself. A good upside of that is that you can also fluster people by doing it and possibly get them to slip up. So yes, I will continue to do this style of Mafia play.

I for one support this course of action.

But yes, things are certainly looking a little dark in El's future. The stormclouds are beginning to gather, the only question is: will his shelter help?

 

[Coreysawrus]

But yes, things are certainly looking a little dark in El's future. The stormclouds are beginning to gather, the only question is: will his shelter help?

Nope, he'll just dodge the lynch

 

[Demelza]

I still firmly believe that abstaining this round, while it would minimize our losses, would keep us even further back because it could:
-Potentially keep us from lynching a Mafia member
-Keep us at zero leads

I firmly agree with the above because personally I don't want to see us lose two townspeople in a day, but I also don't want to see us end up in the same situation next time. Right now it's better to take a shot in the dark than it is to take no shot at all at this point in the game.

Though I do have to agree on the El front. El usually does not give us much to work with, as he lives a busy life and will generally post that we all post too much and he has to catch up. But this game he's been posting a decent bit and all of them a variation of the same the joke. Whilst funny, it is increasingly gaining my attention.

I agree with Red here too, although in fairness to El it could also be the time of year. We're very close to our summer now and a good majority of us are finished with our school/college/uni stuffs, and thus he may just not be -as- busy as normal. I'm beginning to suspect him of something too though, so while I'm somewhat defending him here it by no means means I won't lynch him if he can't defend himself decently.

To add to something Katie said earlier too, I also think there is only one mafia family because when you look at how many players we have, and the fact we've lost two townspeople and likely only have 1-2 more normal townspeople and then the special roles (like Doctor and such), for the town it doesn't really add up to having enough players for two mafia families.

 

[Shocari]

Petey also tells us in some form or fashion if someone was murdered by more than one family. I saw nothing to indicate there being two families, unless one of them forgot to vote, but that's an astronomically slim chance. We're almost definitely looking at just one family this time around.

 

[Dark Soul]

Hm. You guys make a pretty decent point on El's behaviour. I originally didn't care to think much behind it, but to be fair, if you can manage to think up a new way to say 'burn the witch' and post it multiple times a day you could probably manage to write a couple of lines of your own thoughts, ideas or suspicions as well. At this early stage of the game especially, the posts rarely take longer than 5-10 minutes to formulate. I wouldn't go as far as to call it a 'lead', though, at least not yet. Maybe El would care to comment on the accusations himself?

 

[JadaDoesArt]

I see we still have nothing to go off of, with the exception of El's posts, and once again we're down another townie.
I agree with most people on the fact that we cant abstain this day. It would leave us absolutely nowhere and down another townie in the end. I really cant say much more right now because everyone else has said everything that's been needed to say. Gosh leave me something to say one of these days D:
That being said I'll probably find something better to say once people start posting more.

 

[Atma]

Woohoo, some decent discussion progress It looks like either El or Carmen is going to get it this round, then. Of course I'd like to wait a little longer before voting. Unfortunately as earlier stated it seems a bad idea to abstain further this round. Guess I'll just see what everyone still has to say before drawing a conclusion later today.

 

[Coreysawrus]

Love how people are bringing Carmen up when she isnt in the game. I still think going for El is a good choice. From what I've seen in the past El really only has decent discussion at late stages in the game because no one else will. I'm still going for El but I think he is the wrong choice

 

[Sir Red]

Woohoo, some decent discussion progress It looks like either El or Carmen is going to get it this round, then. Of course I'd like to wait a little longer before voting. Unfortunately as earlier stated it seems a bad idea to abstain further this round. Guess I'll just see what everyone still has to say before drawing a conclusion later today.

Hilarious. XD But no, Carmen is not in this game. The running joke is I've killed her in most games.

Anyways, I'm posting from my phone right now and I might not be able to properly factor into the voting for the Day as I'm presently preoccupied with pursuits of peril. Thus I leave it un to you all to move things along and kill some Mafia. May Odin's beard guide your rioting bricks well, my brothers and sisters.

 

[Coreysawrus]

Let's take this free opportunity to down Red ;D Now in all seriousness are we taking El down or are we stabbing else where I want to know before I place my vote down

 

[Atma]

Well that just proves how organised I am about this whole thing xD Looks like the fire is in El's disco then. Sorry for my mix up there. Well, I'm still looking to just live so abstaining is still an attractive option in the world of possibilities.

However, I will wait until someone else votes in the interest of self preservation. I will however state that if another situation whisks me away I will post my vote regardless of I would stand alone or not.

 

[Shocari]

We should wait and see what El has to say on the matter before we hand down judgment.

 

[Coreysawrus]

What if he is a no show though?

 

[Demelza]

Heading out and likely won't be back until late tonight, if I'm back in time I'll vote, but if not I don't want to vote now until we've heard was El has to say. Just wanted to put it out there ^^;

 

[Dark Soul]

Alright. We've given El the time to formulate a counter-argument, which he hasn't done. For the sake of action, and as a slight stab in the dark- Which I'm normally not a fan of, but I feel is mostly justified in this case- I am casting a vote for El.

 

[Coreysawrus]

Okay well I'm still not convinced El is a suitable target and will open us up to leads and I'm not going to cave to peer pressure so for those reasons I'm unfortunately going to abstain as there is no logical reason I can find for lynching anyone

 

[Shocari]

I really don't want to do this. Really. I don't. But we've been left with no other options. As I said earlier, there is a 100% chance that abstaining is going to hurt us. That is an absolute. We will get nowhere by doing so. We never get anywhere when we abstain. Ever.

By lynching someone today, we have a decent chance of them being Mafia, which will get us RESULTS. So, I'm sorry El, but I'm voting to lynch you.

 

[Linkachu]

My thoughts are the same as Sho's on this one. Voting to lynch El.

 

[Teapot]

Okay, Yoshimitsu has been lynched.

He was a Townie.